{"id":84820,"date":"2020-08-11T20:56:34","date_gmt":"2020-08-12T01:56:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uwm.edu\/news\/?p=84820"},"modified":"2024-09-27T10:00:36","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T15:00:36","slug":"what-to-watch-for-at-the-now-virtual-democratic-national-convention","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uwm.edu\/news\/what-to-watch-for-at-the-now-virtual-democratic-national-convention\/","title":{"rendered":"What to watch for at the now-virtual Democratic National Convention"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Democratic National Convention is making history this year all right.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s just not the kind that southeastern Wisconsin hotels, restaurants and other businesses had hoped it would make as the first major political party convention to be held in Milwaukee.<\/p>\n

The coronavirus pandemic forced organizers to dramatically change plans. Now the official coronation of Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate will be a virtual affair,\u00a0presenting some new dynamics to an already unprecedented campaign.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Kathy Dolan<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cUsually we think about a convention as a party\u2019s opportunity to get those delegates from all over the country together, rally the troops, whip them up and send them back to their states to work hard to get turnout,\u201d said Kathy Dolan, a 51ÁÔÆæ distinguished professor of political science.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd so that\u2019s something that might be a lost opportunity,\u201d Dolan added, \u201cexcept that this year and this presidency is so different, I\u2019m not sure it\u2019s going to take the Democratic delegates much work to get excited about trying to get voters turned out.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Democratic convention<\/a>, which begins Aug. 17, will be followed by the Republican National Convention<\/a>. While conventions may make for must-see TV for political junkies, their influence on campaigns overall has been declining, said Thomas Holbrook, the Wilder Crane Professor of Government and distinguished professor of political science.<\/p>\n

Holbrook found in recently updated research<\/a> that the size of the post-convention polling bump that presidential candidates enjoy has decreased dramatically over the last two decades. Convention bumps for presidential candidates averaged more than six points between 1964 and 1996, Holbrook found. The average bump was just 2.4 points between 2000 and 2016.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Thomas Holbrook<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cOne thing that might limit Biden’s bump potential, and hint at a larger bump for President Trump, is that he already has a substantial lead in the polls and there might not be much room for his lead to grow,\u201d Holbrook said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Biden does manage to get a substantial bump, it may mean that his vote potential is higher than his current polling level.\u201d<\/p>\n

Added Dolan: \u201cCandidates usually enjoy a bump, however slight, after a convention because of the extra media attention. I think it\u2019s just the saturation of a party\u2019s message that\u2019s going to be missed more than anything.\u201d<\/p>\n

While cable news channels might offer extensive coverage, air time for conventions has declined steadily on the major broadcast television networks over the last few decades. Holbrook said that this year\u2019s virtual conventions will test whether parties need to hold weeklong, in-person mega-gatherings in the future, or whether it\u2019s enough to secure just a couple hours of television coverage every night to convey messages to voters.<\/p>\n

Conventions also have served as the formal entry into the race of a presidential candidate\u2019s running mate, though Dolan said that vice presidential selections usually don\u2019t make a big difference in a race.<\/p>\n

This campaign has been a bit different given that Biden in March committed to selecting a woman as his running mate. Since then, the racial justice movement sparked by the death of George Floyd also has become a major campaign issue.<\/p>\n

On Tuesday, Biden announced the selection of Sen. Kamala Harris of California as his running mate, one of several women of color who were rumored to be on his short list of contenders. If Biden wins, Harris would be the first woman to be elected vice president in the United States.<\/p>\n

The only other women to run for vice president for a major party were Democrat Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Republican Sarah Palin in 2008.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople aren\u2019t voting for the vice president necessarily,\u201d Dolan said. \u201cBut I think this time, this selection has the potential to have a greater impact on the campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Democratic National Convention is making history this year all right — just not the kind that anyone in southeastern Wisconsin had hoped it would be for the first major political party convention to be held in Milwaukee.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40008,"featured_media":84822,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","uwm_wg_additional_authors":[]},"categories":[174],"tags":[],"section":[246,247],"display_categories":[115,116],"related-coverage":[318],"uwmnews-feed":[158,159],"class_list":["post-84820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","section-business-world-affairs","section-politics-social-science","display_categories-top-story-secondary","display_categories-top-story-section","related-coverage-dnc","uwmnews-feed-letters-science","uwmnews-feed-humanities"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat to watch for at the 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